2020

1. [Atwood et al. 2020] Abstract. We evaluate the longitudinal variation in meridional shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings using a large suite of coupled climate model simulations. We find that the energetic framework of the zonal mean Hadley cell is generally not useful for characterizing shifts of the rainbelt at regional scales, regardless of the characteristics of the forcing. Forcings with large hemispheric asymmetry such as extratropical volcanic forcing, meltwater forcing, and the Last Glacial Maximum give rise to robust zonal mean shifts of the rainbelt; however, the direction and magnitude of the shift vary strongly as a function of longitude. Even the Pacific rainband does not shift uniformly under any forcing considered. Forcings with weak hemispheric asymmetry such as CO2 and mid‐Holocene forcing give rise to zonal mean shifts that are small or absent, but the rainbelt does shift regionally in coherent ways across models that may have important dynamical consequences.
   ITCZ with several forcings

2. [Cuesta-Valero et al. 2020] Abstract. Energy exchanges among climate subsystems are of critical importance to determine the climate sensitivity of the Earth's system to greenhouse gases, to quantify the magnitude and evolution of the Earth's energy imbalance, and to project the evolution of future climate. Thus, ascertaining the magnitude and change of the Earth's energy partition within climate subsystems has become urgent in recent years. Here, we provide new global estimates of changes in ground surface temperature, ground surface heat flux and continental heat storage derived from geothermal data using an expanded database and new techniques. Results reveal markedly higher changes in ground heat flux and heat storage within the continental subsurface than previously reported, with land temperature changes of 1 K and continental heat gains of around 12 ZJ during the last part of the 20th century relative to preindustrial times. Half of the heat gain by the continental subsurface since 1960 have occurred in the last twenty years.
   Soil heat storage

3. [Escribano and Lazaro-Touza 2020] The COVID-19 pandemic has radically altered the energy outlook, both in economic and geopolitical terms. Climate governance has also been significantly affected in a key year for increasing ambition. This working paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the geopolitics of oil and gas, on the evolution of the European Green Deal and on climate governance, updating and deepening a previous policy brief published in Spanish.1 It concludes that, while the priority of governments and citizens is undoubtedly the fight against coronavirus, the radical change in the short-term context should not distract energy and climate policy from the challenges it faces over the medium and long terms. Furthermore, energy and climate policies will be key to shaping an optimal policy response to the crisis.
   Covid19 and climate change

4. [Hagemann et al. 2020] Regional coupled system models require a high-resolution discharge component to couple their atmosphere/land components to the ocean component and to adequately resolve smaller catchments and the day-to-day variability of discharge. As the currently coupled discharge models usually do not fulfill this requirement, we improved a well-established discharge model, the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, to be globally applicable at 5 Min. resolution. As the first coupled high-resolution discharge simulations are planned over Europe and the Baltic Sea catchment, we focus on the respective regions in the present study. As no river specific parameter adjustments were conducted and since the HD model parameters depend on globally available gridded characteristics, the model is, in principle, applicable for climate change studies and over ungauged catchments. For the validation of the 5 Min. HD (HD5) model, we force it with prescribed fields of surface and subsurface runoff. As no large-scale observations of these variables exist, they need to be calculated by a land surface scheme or hydrology model using observed or re-analyzed meteorological data. In order to pay regard to uncertainties introduced by these calculations, three different methods and datasets were used to derive the required fields of surface and subsurface runoff for the forcing of the HD5 model. However, the evaluation of the model performance itself is hampered by biases in these fields as they impose an upper limit on the accuracy of simulated discharge. 10-years simulations (2000–2009) show that for many European rivers, where daily discharge observations were available for comparison, the HD5 model captures the main discharge characteristics reasonably well. Deficiencies of the simulated discharge could often be traced back to deficits in the various forcing datasets. As direct anthropogenic impact on the discharge, such as by regulation or dams, is not regarded in the HD model, those effects can generally not be simulated. Thus, discharges for many heavily regulated rivers in Scandinavia or for the rivers Volga and Don are not well represented by the model. The comparison of the three sets of simulated discharges indicates that the HD5 model is suitable to evaluate the terrestrial hydrological cycle of climate models or land surface models, especially with regard to the separation of throughfall (rain or snow melt) into surface and subsurface runoff.
   Covid19 and climate change

   [Harris et al. 2020] CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series) is a widely used climate dataset on a 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude grid over all land domains of the world except Antarctica. It is derived by the interpolation of monthly climate anomalies from extensive networks of weather station observations. Here we describe the construction of a major new version, CRU TS v4. It is updated to span 1901–2018 by the inclusion of additional station observations, and it will be updated annually. The interpolation process has been changed to use angular-distance weighting (ADW), and the production of secondary variables has been revised to better suit this approach. This implementation of ADW provides improved traceability between each gridded value and the input observations, and allows more informative diagnostics that dataset users can utilise to assess how dataset quality might vary geographically.
   global surface dataset

5. [Hermoso de Mendoza et al. 2020] Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) use bottom bound- aries for their land surface model (LSM) components which are shallower than the depth reached by surface temperature changes in the centennial timescale associated with recent climate change. Shallow bottom boundaries reflect energy to the surface, which along with the lack of geothermal heat flux in current land surface models, alter the surface energy bal- ance and therefore affect some feedback processes between the ground surface and the atmosphere, such as permafrost and soil carbon stability. To evaluate these impacts, we mod- ified the subsurface model in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) by setting a non-zero crustal heat flux bottom boundary condition uniformly across the model and by increasing the depth of the lower boundary from 42.1 to 342.1 m. The modified and original land models were run during the period 1901–2005 under the historical forcing and between 2005 and 2300 under forcings for two future scenar- ios of moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Increasing the thick- ness of the subsurface by 300 m increases the heat stored in the subsurface by 72 ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J) by the year 2300 for the RCP4.5 scenario and 201 ZJ for the RCP8.5 scenario (re- spective increases of 260 and 217 percent relative to the shallow model), reduces the loss of near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere between 1901 and 2300 by 1.6 – 1.9 percent, reduces the loss of intermediate-depth permafrost area (above 42.1 m depth) by a factor of 3–5.5 and reduces the loss of soil carbon by 1.6 –3.6 percent. Each increase of 20 mW m−2 of the crustal heat flux increases the temperature at 3.8m (the soil–bedrock interface) by 0.04 ± 0.01 K. This decreases near-surface permafrost area slightly (0.3 –0.8 percent) and pro- duces local differences in initial stable size of the soil carbon pool across the permafrost region, which reduces the loss of soil carbon across the region by as much as 1.1 –5.6 percent for the two scenarios. Reducing subsurface thickness from 42.1 to 3.8 m, used by many LSMs, produces a larger effect than increasing it to 342.1 m, because 3.8 m is not enough to damp the annual signal and the subsurface closely follows the air temperature. We determine the optimal subsurface thickness to be 100 m for a 100-year simulation and 200 m for a sim- ulation of 400 years. We recommend short-term simulations to use a subsurface of at least 40 m, to avoid the perturbation of seasonal temperature propagation.
   lowering bbcp

6. [Hersbach et al. 2020] Abstract: Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing the ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new reanalysis replaces the ERA-Interim reanalysis (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. ERA5 is based on the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 which was operational in 2016. ERA5 thus benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, core dynamics and data assimilation. In addition to a significantly enhanced horizontal resolution of 31 km, compared to 80 km for ERA-Interim, ERA5 has hourly output throughout, and an uncertainty estimate from an ensemble (3-hourly at half the horizontal resolution). This paper describes the general set-up of ERA5, as well as a basic evaluation of characteristics and performance, with a focus on the dataset from 1979 onwards which is currently publicly available. Re-forecasts from ERA5 analyses show a gain of up to one day in skill with respect to ERA-Interim. Comparison with radiosonde and PILOT data prior to assimilation shows an improved fit for temperature, wind and humidity in the troposphere, but not the stratosphere. A comparison with independent buoy data shows a much improved fit for ocean wave height. The uncertainty estimate reflects the evolution of the observing systems used in ERA5. The enhanced temporal and spatial resolution allows for a detailed evolution of weather systems. For precipitation, global-mean correlation with monthly-mean GPCP data is increased from 67% to 77%. In general, low-frequency variability is found to be well represented and from 10 hPa downwards general patterns of anomalies in temperature match those from the ERA-Interim, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 reanalyses.
   Global reanalysis ERA5

7. [Kaufman et al. 2020] An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied ve di erent statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used di erent approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. the results were aggregated to generate a multi- method ensemble of plausible GMSt and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMSt cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.
   Holocene temperature reconstructions

8. [Koenigk et al. 2020] Reviews the state of knowledge of mechanisms of the observed changed, the potential consequences of future Arctic warming for sea ice, ocean and atmosphere, and unertainties due to emission scenarios, model shortcomings and natural variability.
   Climate change Arctic

9. [McConnell et al. 2020] The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventu- ally, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identify- ing the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forc- ing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.
   Hydroclimate, volcanic eruptions, modelling, Roman Republic

10. [Meehl et al. 2020] ABSTRACT: For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2) is 1.8 C to 5.6 C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO2 doubling in a 1% per year CO2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7 C (1.3 C to 3.0 C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.
    ECS, TCR, CMIP6

11. [Meinshausen et al. 2020] Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.
    SPSS scenarios, overshoot

12. [Morton 2020] Ancient Assyria was an agrarian society whose agricultural output (honored in this bas-relief as a “tree of life” flanked by Assyrian deities) benefited from wet (megapluvial) periods and suffered during prolonged megadroughts
    Megadroughts

13. [Nabel et al. 2020] Abstract. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances, in particular forest management, affect forest age structures all around the globe. Forest age structures in turn influence key land surface processes, such as photosynthesis and thus the carbon cycle. Yet, many dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), including those used as land surface models (LSMs) in Earth system models (ESMs), do not account for subgrid forest age structures, despite being used to investigate land-use effects on the global carbon budget or simulating biogeochemical responses to climate change. In this paper we present a new scheme to introduce forest age classes in hierarchical tile-based DGVMs combining benefits of recently applied approaches the first being a computationally efficient age-dependent simulation of all relevant processes, such as photosynthesis and respiration, using a restricted number of age classes and the second being the tracking of the exact forest age, which is a prerequisite for any implementation of age-based forest management. This combination is achieved by using the tile hierarchy to track the area fraction for each age on an aggregated plant functional type level, whilst simulating the relevant processes for a set of age classes. We describe how we implemented this scheme in JSBACH4, the LSM of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Earth system model (ICON-ESM). Subsequently, we compare simulation output to global observation-based products for gross primary production, leaf area index, and above-ground biomass to assess the ability of simulations with and without age classes to reproduce the annual cycle and large-scale spatial patterns of these variables. The comparisons show decreasing differences and increasing computation costs with an increasing number of distinguished age classes. The results demonstrate the benefit of the introduction of age classes, with the optimal number of age classes being a compromise between computation costs and error reduction.
    tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4

14. [Phillips 2020] Abstract. For years, carbon-cycle scientists have sought to understand how the decay of soil carbon will be impacted by a warming climate. However, there have been relatively few investigations of how soils will warm in comparison to the atmosphere. Three recent papers in AGU journals have looked at expected soil warming by synthesizing predictions in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Collectively, conclusions from these papers show that soil warming will keep pace with air warming except where snow and ice occur, and that the magnitude of soil warming in northern latitudes is uncertain due to model variability in snow and ice extent. They also show that a considerable portion of anthropogenic warming is being stored in deep soils, and that in comparison to observations soil heat storage is underrepresented by land models. These studies highlight how important continued investigations of soil climatology are to understanding carbon cycling and earth energy balance.
    cmip5 soil warming

15. [Qin et al. 2020] Background: While the physical and chemical properties of airborne particulate matter (PM) have been extensively studied, their associated microbiome remains largely unexplored. Here, we performed a longitudinal metagenomic survey of 106 samples of airborne PM2.5 and PM10 in Beijing over a period of 6 months in 2012 and 2013, including those from several historically severe smog events. Results: We observed that the microbiome composition and functional potential were conserved between PM2.5 and PM10, although considerable temporal variations existed. Among the airborne microorganisms, Propionibacterium acnes, Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter lwoffii, Lactobacillus amylovorus, and Lactobacillus reuteri dominated, along with several viral species. We further identified an extensive repertoire of genes involved in antibiotic resistance and detoxification, including transporters, transpeptidases, and thioredoxins. Sample stratification based on Air Quality Index (AQI) demonstrated that many microbial species, including those associated with human, dog, and mouse feces, exhibit AQI-dependent incidence dynamics. The phylogenetic and functional diversity of air microbiome is comparable to those of soil and water environments, as its composition likely derives from a wide variety of sources. Conclusions: Airborne particulate matter accommodates rich and dynamic microbial communities, including a range of microbial elements that are associated with potential health consequences.
    Particulate matter (PM), Microbiome, Bacteria, Eukaryotes, Viruses, Archaea, Air pollution

16. [Soong et al. 2020] Abstract: Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 +- 0.7 and 4.5 +- 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface ( 1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface air above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.
    Soil warms a lot in cmip5

17. [von Schuckmann et al. 2020] Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory, and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the past 58 years, with a total heat gain of 393 ± 40 ZJ, which is equivalent to a heating rate of 0.42 ± 0.04 W m−2. The majority of the heat gain (89 percent) takes place in the global ocean (0–700 m: 53 %; 700–2000 m: 28 %; > 2000 m: 8 %), while it amounts to 6 % for the land heat gain, to 4 % available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and to 1 % for atmospheric warming. These new estimates indicate a larger contribution of land and ice heat gain (10 % in total) compared to previous estimates (7 %). There is a regime shift of the Earth heat inventory over the past 2 decades, which appears to be predominantly driven by heat sequestration into the deeper layers of the global ocean, and a doubling of heat gain in the atmosphere. However, a major challenge is to reduce uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory, which can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, as well as to establish an international framework for concerted multi-disciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory.
    Where does the energy go

18. [George and White 2020] Recommendations for talks
    Talks

19. [Vakulchuk et al. 2020] Abstract: This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weak- nesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportion- ately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.
    Geopolitics and renewables